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August 5, 2024
- Occam continuously monitors perceived value across multiple QSR and casual dining restaurant brands, providing valuable insights into consumer preferences.
- Contrary to the CEO’s recent comments that consumers recognize McDonald’s as the “value leader,” occam’s data indicates that consumers have recently ranked it last among its peers for value for money.
- Recent price increases at McDonald’s have significantly impacted its perceived value, resulting in its first sales decline since 2020 and underscoring the importance of the price-to-value ratio in consumer decision-making.
- Occam’s consumer sentiment tracking across the restaurant sector uncovers shifts in perceived value, purchase intent, and brand perception, offering critical insights into the dynamic fast-food landscape.
- Become a subscriber today to access real-time updates.
July 29, 2024
- Net favorability is measured by subtracting the percentage of people who have an unfavorable opinion of a candidate from the percentage who have a favorable opinion of that candidate.
- Data from occam suggests that there is only a slight difference in net favorability between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among the general public, indicating both candidates are viewed relatively similarly by voters.
- However, when looking at net favorability among different racial groups, stark differences emerge in candidate favorability. Harris commands a robust +27% net favorability among Black voters, in sharp contrast to Trump’s -36%. However, Trump holds a significant edge among white voters with -8% net favorability versus Harris’s -27%, underscoring the critical role of racial demographics in the upcoming election.
- Subscribe today to access real-time updates to occam and HingeVoter.ai as they track voter intentions and policy implications for both the 2024 Presidential and battleground Congressional elections.
July 22, 2024
- This week the world was hit with one of the biggest IT outages in recent history. In fact Elon Musk called it the “biggest IT fail ever.”
- While this was not a cybersecurity attack according to CrowdStrike, data from occam shows that Americans consider cybersecurity threats to be the top global security concern.
- Cybersecurity threats rank higher than political instability, terrorism, climate change, pandemics, natural disasters, and even nuclear proliferation.
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July 15, 2024
- Using occam’s new crosstab module, we examine below the relationship between EV brand purchase intent and Elon Musk’s favorability rating.
- Elon Musk’s net favorability is measured by subtracting the percentage of people who have an unfavorable opinion of him from the percentage who have a favorable opinion of him.
- We see that respondents who have a negative view of Musk are less likely to consider Tesla and more likely to consider other brands such as Rivian and Polestar. This trend is also discussed in recent articles from the NY Times and Bloomberg.
- Respondents who considered the purchase of only three of the brands have a net favorable opinion of Musk. Interestingly, those open to purchasing Porsche EVs have a more favorable view of Musk than potential Tesla customers.
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July 7, 2024
- Over the past two years, HOKA’s purchase intent has surged by over 100%, reflecting a strong and growing consumer preference for their highly cushioned shoes.
- Over the same time period, Nike’s purchase intent has remained essentially flat.
- Occam data has been highlighting an increased preference for relative newcomers like On Running and HOKA, signaling potential challenges for Nike. See the January blog post here.
- Last week, Nike’s stock fell by 20%, marking its largest decline ever and wiping out $28 billion in market capitalization.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
July 1, 2024
- After Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance in the first debate, occam queried voters to see if their voting intentions changed.
- Over 40% of Republicans said the debate significantly influenced their vote, likely solidifying their decision to support Donald Trump. However, only 24% of Democrats and only 21% of Independents reported that the debate had a significant impact on their voting intentions, with the majority of Independents stating it would not affect their vote.
- While the media is abuzz with claims of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans, initial data from occam suggests that the impact of the debate is more moderate. We await the next crucial datapoint from HingeVoter.ai, which will be published in the coming days, to see if voting intentions have changed among key voter groups in important swing states following the debate.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
June 24, 2024
- HingeVoter.ai and occam™ can help users better understand the outcome and implications of the 2024 election. HingeVoter.ai is AlphaROC’s proprietary real-time election monitor that focuses on both swing states and key demographic groups within those states. (contact us to learn more about HingeVoter.ai)
- HingeVoter.ai has shown that the race remains much tighter than most polls indicate, with the bump Biden experienced in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s May 30th conviction fading.
- Occam data indicates that approximately two-thirds of Americans intend to watch the debate on June 27th. Heading into the debate, over 40% of independents feel it is too close to call, while 34% believe Trump is the likely winner. Occam will track views both before and after the debate to assess its impact.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
June 16, 2024
- Apple introduced a broad set of artificial intelligence features during its WWDC Keynote last week, branding the collection under the moniker “Apple Intelligence.”
- In the days following the WWDC Keynote, occam detected that certain AI-enabled features are driving smartphone upgrade interest.
- A rise in purchase intent could drive a meaningful iPhone upgrade cycle this fall, given that only late-model iPhones support many of the new AI features and given that occam shows that the average age of iPhones has been increasing (data available upon request).
- Become a subscriber today to access our real-time updates.
June 9, 2024
- Occam’s tracking of Trump’s conviction and its impact on the election shows a 3.5% increase in voting intention for Biden among independents.
- While 7.3% of independents, a critical voting bloc for the 2024 election, intend to switch their vote to Trump, this is outweighed by the 10.8% likely to switch their vote to Biden based on the verdict. Occam will continue monitoring the persistence of this sentiment.
- Occam’s on-demand capabilities provide fast, nuanced insights into key news and events.
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June 1, 2024
- A real-time election monitor that tracks not only swing states but also key demographic groups within those states.
- In 2016 the election hinged on 78,000 votes (in PA, WI, MI) and in 2020 the election hinged on fewer than 44,000 votes (in WI, AZ, GA). HingeVoter.ai focuses on voting intent of these critical populations in key swing states every day!
- Enjoy FREE access to HingeVoter.ai through the weekend! Contact us for further details.
May 25, 2024
- Occam surveys respondents daily about their views on immigration.
- 27% of Republicans rank immigration as the top issue facing the U.S., while only 6% of Democrats do.
- Interestingly, only 11% of Independents cite immigration as the most important issue, aligning more with Democrats.
- Concern about immigration has risen among respondents of all political affiliations.
- Become a subscriber today to access our real-time updates.
May 18, 2024
- While occam data has shown waning interest among the general population in self-driving vehicles, younger adults (aged 18-44) in higher income brackets ($100k+) demonstrate a more stable interest in buying vehicles featuring the technology.
- Occam provides continuous consumer sentiment tracking for self-driving car adoption, including brand preferences and purchase intent as well as interest in self-driving technology by demographic cohorts (including by geography and party affiliation).
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
May 11, 2024
- Occam reveals a declining belief among Americans in the likelihood of a recession over the next six months. However, occam also shows a stark difference in perception between Republicans and Democrats – Republicans are consistently more pessimistic about the economy than Democrats.
- Two possible explanations for this divergence come to mind: 1) economic perceptions may be influenced by which party is in power — Republicans might be more skeptical of the economy’s performance under a Democratic administration; 2) media consumption habits could bias viewpoints — Democrats may engage more with media that presents the economy relatively optimistically, while Republicans may rely more on media that is relatively critical.
- Independents roughly split the difference between Republicans and Democrats, but have leaned somewhat more towards the viewpoint of Democrats. It’s also noteworthy that the gap between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed meaningfully over the last year.
- Become a subscriber today to access our real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
May 4, 2024
- During this week’s FOMC decision press conference, Jerome Powell reiterated his belief that the federal funds rate is sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation back to 2%. As supporting evidence, he noted that the percentage of workers stating “jobs are plentiful” has declined to pre-COVID levels, suggesting that labor market tightness has eased considerably.
- Occam asks an identical jobs-are-plentiful question daily, which allows for real-time insight into the evolution of attitudes towards the availability of jobs and an accurate forecast of the Fed’s eventual data release. Consistent with Powell’s observation, occam predicted that the jobs-are-plentiful response had in fact returned to pre-COVID levels. We see also that it continues to decline, which suggests a continued easing of labor market conditions.
- Become a subscriber today to access our real-time forecasts of key macroeconomic variables.
April 28, 2024
- Following up on our our previous blog on anti-obesity drugs, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound continues to have lower awareness relative to other GLP-1s.
- Despite limited general awareness demand has already surpassed supply leading to nationwide shortages.
- Occam empowers users to evaluate key insights in the weight loss drug and broader pharmaceutical market, offering a unique, data-driven perspective into the industry.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
April 20, 2024
- Occam has been monitoring consumer adoption trends for generative AI technologies since January 2023.
- A new entrant has emerged in the LLM chatbot space with Meta’s announcement of its own, currently free AI chatbot.
- Meta AI boasts real-time text-to-image generation, a feature that other chatbots don’t currently offer. This could give Meta AI a competitive advantage, and help spur incremental adoption across the board.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
April 13, 2024
- Occam continuously tracks Netflix password sharing, in addition to other trends including the subscription tier mix and level of churn.
- In April 2022, Netflix estimated that passwords were being shared with 100 million non-paying households, with 30 million in the U.S. and Canada alone.
- In May 2023, Netflix implemented measures to curb password sharing across the U.S. and many other countries.
- The decline in password sharing has bolstered subscriber growth, but the pool of users who are still password sharing is not an inexhaustible resource.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
April 6, 2024
- Occam’s monitoring of consumer behavior reveals the impact of rising prices, highlighting a continued shift towards more cost-conscious purchasing decisions.
- Consumers are choosing to buy cheaper store brand alternatives instead of pricier name brands at the highest rate since occam began tracking this data.
- Despite the easing rate of inflation, persistently high prices continue to exert pressure on consumers.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
March 29, 2024
- Occam monitors consumer usage of short form video and social media apps.
- YouTube Shorts’ market share has risen rapidly over the past 18 months, outpacing TikTok’s growth trajectory. Facebook Reels and Instagram Reels have experienced similar ascents (not shown).
- If TikTok were to be banned in the U.S., both creators and users appear now to have legitimate alternatives to choose from.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
March 23, 2024
- Occam monitors the sensitivity of homebuyer purchase intent to mortgage rates.
- The chart below illustrates willingness to purchase a home as a function of the level of 30-year mortgage rates.
- Buyers seem noticeably more receptive to elevated mortgage rates in Q1 2024 than they were in Q1 2023.
- This increased receptivity to high mortgage rates causes us to anticipate a larger uptick in closings if rates were to fall compared to what we would have expected last year.
- Become asubscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
March 16, 2024
- Following up on our blogs about Decoding EV Demand and EV Brand Preferences, our continuous monitoring of consumer sentiment on EVs has uncovered a significant uptick for plug-in hybrid vehicle purchasing intent.
- Occam data, from April 2023 through today, suggests that there is an increasing demand for plug-in hybrids as a compromise between traditional gasoline and fully electric vehicles.
- In fact, according to Green Car Report, plug-in hybrid EV growth has increase 50%+ in FY23.
- Become asubscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
March 4, 2024
- Occam continuously tracks consumer banking trends for many regional and national banks.
- As per occam data, the percentage of Americans who have either a checking/savings account or a credit card with Chase grew consistently throughout 2023.
- JPMorgan Chase reported 2 million net new checking accounts for 2023 and a 7% increase (YoY) in total credit and debit card sales volume.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
February 26, 2024
- Reddit filed to go public this week!
- Occam investigated those who invest in cryptocurrencies by usage of social media platforms.
- Reddit users are 1.7 times more likely to be cryptocurrency investors compared to the general population.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates and critical contextual insights.
February 10, 2024
- Following last week’s reception to the “Chart of the Week” featuring a radial plot of Stanley vs. YETI, we are back this week, examining SHEIN vs. Temu.
- Below is a radial plot depicting the demographic composition of SHEIN customers vs. Temu customers, across gender, age, income, and social media usage.
- Temu has achieved mass market success, with almost all points closer to the general population compared to SHEIN. On the other hand, SHEIN users tend to be social media enthusiasts, predominantly young and female.
- Occam continuously monitors purchasing behavior across thousands of brands such as these.
- Become a subscriber today to access real-time updates.
February 5, 2024
- Stanley has taken the tumbler market by storm. The SNL skit last week titled “Big Dumb Cups” was a hit!
- Below is a radial plot depicting the demographic composition of Stanley customers vs. YETI customers, across gender, age, income and social media usage.
- Stanley Cups went viral thanks to social media, which aligns with the observation that its customers are significantly more likely to be users of TikTok, Snapchat, and Pinterest, as well as young.
- Occam continuously monitors purchasing behavior across thousands of brands such as these.
- Become a subscriber today to access real-time updates.
January 27, 2024
- Occam continuously monitors usage share of various payment apps and gathers deep demographic insights about their customers.
- While aggregate payment app usage continues to rise, Zelle usage has recently reached parity with Cash App usage according to occam.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
January 22, 2024
- It’s Apple Vision Pro pre-order week! Apple’s newest product launch since the Apple Watch in 2015.
- Occam asks participants “At what price would you consider buying Apple’s Vision Pro?”
- The plot depicts the price elasticity curve representing current demand for the Vision Pro.
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January 7, 2024
- Occam surveys over 600 individuals daily to gauge inflation expectations in real-time using questions similar to those found in the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- A new data point is appended to the series each day, providing users with a near-live Nowcast, instead of a once-a-month update, which is already stale by the time it’s released.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
December 30, 2023
- Occam asked Americans to identify the race/ethnicity of Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
- Both parents of both candidates are indeed of South Asian descent, but Nikki Haley is more often perceived as being White rather than South Asian.
- Interestingly, Democrat voters more often correctly identify both Vivek’s and Nikki’s backgrounds than Republican voters do.
- Become a subscriber today to receive more election updates in 2024!.
December 22, 2023
- Occam’s NPS module provides users with real-time NPS that can be analyzed demographically and soon, longitudinally.
- Users can track NPS for virtually any brand in America.
- Wishing everyone traveling frustration-free holiday journeys! Below is a snapshot of some of the largest airlines and their current NPS. As expected, airlines register some of the lowest NPS across occam.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
December 16, 2023
- Occam surveys over 600 individuals daily to gauge consumer sentiment in real time, using the same questions as the University of Michigan.
- A new data point is appended to the series each day, providing users with a near-live Nowcast, instead of a once-a-month update, which is already stale by the time it’s released.
- Become a subscriber today to access these real-time updates.
December 9, 2023
- SHEIN has confidentially filed to go public in the U.S.
- Occam continuously monitors preference share of various fast fashion brands and gathers deep demographic insights about their customers.
- Will SHEIN continue to disrupt the fashion industry?
- Become a subscriber today to access real time updates.
December 2, 2023
- It’s Cybertruck’s launch week! Setting looks and design aside, occam data suggests a growing interest in EV pickups.
- Younger Americans are increasingly drawn to the Cybertruck, even as electric F150s and Silverados continue to dominate interest in the EV pickup market.
- Become a subscriber today to access real-time updates and real-time demand indicators for the Cybertruck.
November 27, 2023
- While still early days, Expedia’s One Key rewards program is gaining increasing traction with shoppers across Expedia’s brands, with over 11% of Americans already familiar with it.
- One of the key theses for One Key is to encourage cross-shopping across Expedia’s brands.
- The initial findings from occam™ suggests that over half of One Key members are using the program to use rewards across Expedia, Hotels.com and VRBO.
- Become a subscriber today to access real time updates.
November 18, 2023
- Inflation and jobs remain the primary concerns of Americans heading into the 2024 elections.
- 27% of Americans cite inflation as the most important issue facing the U.S., up from 23% in March.
- 18% of Americans cite jobs and the economy as the most important issue, up from 16% in March.
- However 3 key social issues warrant close attention: immigration, gun laws, and abortion.
- Data from occam indicates a notable trend: topics traditionally aligned with conservative viewpoints, such as immigration, are perceived as increasingly important, whereas issues often associated with liberal stances, including gun control and abortion rights, are showing a decline in importance.
- Become a subscriber today to access real time updates.
November 11, 2023
- While still incredibly early in the cycle, occam™ data suggests the iPhone 15 is pacing very close to the early days of the iPhone 14, though slightly below last year’s iPhone 14 trajectory
- Occam continuously monitors penetration of the various iPhone models
- Become a subscriber today to access real time updates
November 4, 2023
- During this week’s press conference Jerome Powell was asked: “what makes you confident tighter financial conditions will slow above-trend growth…?”
- His response: “if you look at surveys of people, [they think] it’s not a good time to buy durable goods of various kinds because rates are so high now.”
- Occam identified this inflecton back in July. See below:
October 27, 2023
- Temu has exploded onto the e-commerce scene with over 100m active shoppers
- Nearly 40% of American adults have shopped on Temu
- The image below is a snapshot of shopper demographics by age and gender:
October 20, 2023
- In our recent blog post (Netflix Strikes Back) we were adamant that password sharing crackdowns were accretive to both subscriptions and over time to ARM (Average Revenue per Membership) as well.
- After a series of negative comments from the Street, Netflix had significantly underperformed the market into earnings.
- Today’s strong earnings report, with Netflix’s stock surging by 16%, not only exceeded expectations but also aligned closely with occam’s prediction.
October 12, 2023
Paid Social Media
- Meta is exploring allowing European users to pay for ad-free access to Facebook and Instagram .(NY Times; 9/1/23, WSJ; 10/3/23)
- X (formerly Twitter) is also considering rolling out ad-free access.(Bloomberg; 10/5/23)
- Occam sees reasonable demand for social media without ads.1 out of 4 people would be willing to pay for a paid version of social media.
- Nearly 1 in 10 would be willing to pay more than $5/month.
October 8, 2023
- The struggle consumers are having with saving money has risen back to pre-COVID levels.
- Inflation has reduced purchasing power so that now 1-in-5 Americans say they can’t cover living expenses.
- Occam sees numerous cracks forming under the consumer landscape.