As the 2024 presidential election nears, we expect the role of Independents as swing voters will once again come into focus. These voters, caught between the polarized views of the two major parties, often decide close elections, and their shifting views on economic and social issues will likely be central to the outcome. Inflation, jobs, and immigration are clear priorities for the general voting population, a reflection of recent economic and social anxieties. However, occam shows large differences when voter priorities are viewed by party affiliation and that shows Independents don’t simply “split the difference.” On issues related to the economy, Independents look more like Republicans, whereas on social issues, Independents look more like Democrats. For complementary insights, visit HingeVoter.ai, which monitors the evolution of opinions held by swing voters who live in swing states.
Election Issues
- Inflation still ranks as the top voter concern by a meaningful margin, followed by jobs and the economy.
- Immigration has experienced the largest relative increase in concern compared to its starting level back in 2023. It has risen to become a top-3 issue for Americans as we head into the 2024 election.
- Interestingly, over this same period, concern about crime has decreased on a relative basis.
Voter Blocs
- Independents align more closely with Republicans on the relative importance of economic issues.
- Independents align more closely with Democrats on the relative importance of social issues.
- The tables below display the top issues for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. The highlighted rows show ratios that indicate the extent to which each party overindexes on the issues they consider most important.
Ratios indicate an issue’s importance to a specific group relative to the general population: ‘1.2x’ = 20% more important; ‘0.8x’ = 20% less important.
- Below we show the issues where each age cohort overindexes most strongly.
Ratios indicate an issue’s importance to a specific group relative to the general population: ‘1.2x’ = 20% more important; ‘0.8x’ = 20% less important.
- Below we show the issues where each income cohort overindexes most strongly.
Ratios indicate an issue’s importance to a specific group relative to the general population: ‘1.2x’ = 20% more important; ‘0.8x’ = 20% less important.
- Below we show the issues where each race cohort overindexes most strongly.
Ratios indicate an issue’s importance to a specific group relative to the general population: ‘1.2x’ = 20% more important; ‘0.8x’ = 20% less important.
Inflation, Jobs, & the Economy
- Voters have overall grown more optimistic about a soft landing.
- However, independents have begun to lean slightly towards the less optimistic view of Republicans.
Immigration
- The last 4 years have seen record levels of border encounters, especially at the end of 2023.
- According to occam, nearly 90% of respondents reported some level of concern about the southern border crisis.
- As might be expected, Republicans express much more concern than Democrats.
- A majority of respondents say they want the government to authorize less immigration to America.
- A strong partisan divide over immigration persists, but independents lean meaningful towards Democrats.
- Independents lean towards Democrats when judging the possible harms of illegal immigrants
Gun Control
- Greater restrictions on guns are supported by a majority of Democrats and Independents.
Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.
AlphaROC occam case studies are for illustrative purposes only. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees, data vendors, and advisors may hold positions, including contrary positions, in companies discussed in these reports. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors, or markets identified and described in these case studies will be profitable. Investors should consult with their advisors to determine the suitability of each investment based on their unique individual situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.