Trump’s Conviction
- Occam’s tracking of Trump’s conviction and its impact on the election shows a 3.5% increase in voting intention for Biden among independents.
- While 7.3% of independents, a critical voting bloc for the 2024 election, intend to switch their vote to Trump, this is outweighed by the 10.8% likely to switch their vote to Biden based on the verdict. Occam will continue monitoring the persistence of this sentiment.
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