AlphaROC – AI Driven Data Science & Analytics

Netflix Strikes Back: A Deeper Look at Password Crackdowns and Advertising

After a challenging post-covid phase marked by subscription losses that impacted revenues and its reputation as a consistent generator of growth, Netflix has daringly implemented two significant (if controversial) strategic maneuvers to considerable success, emerging as one of the stand-out performers of 2023. The first initiative put an end to account sharing. Though some observers initially dismissed the announcement as an empty threat or even a misstep, data from occam suggests the initiative is likely accretive to BOTH subscriptions and Average Revenue per Membership (ARM). The second initiative introduced an ad-supported subscription tier. Thus far, the plan has shown to be an effective churn reducer and incremental on-ramp to price sensitive consumers. Below, we reveal how both maneuvers are growing Netflix revenues and expanding its prized subscriber base.

Read More »

Reality Check: Exploring Demand for Apple’s Vision Pro

As the dust settles from the unveiling of Apple’s state-of-the-art Vision Pro AR/VR headset, there’s not only excitement, but also a palpable air of reservation among consumers. Its hefty price tag of $3500 is raising eyebrows, with many wondering if the headset will primarily be a toy for high-income early-adopters. Data from occam supports this notion: a substantial fraction of potential buyers are balking at the cost. Below, with the help of occam data, we explore consumer interest level in the headset, the implications of the high pricing, and how the headset might still provide a quiet win for Apple and its sticky ecosystem.

Read More »

Roblox: A Metaverse Winner or Child’s Play?

Originally a relatively obscure minigame website that drew in the more adventurous members of the online gaming community, Roblox has undergone a remarkable transformation, positioning itself as one of the most distinctive video game platforms in recent memory. With its foundation rooted in user-generated gaming content, customizable digital assets, and an inclusive digital atmosphere, Roblox holds the potential to become a formidable player in the Metaverse. However, despite the platform’s substantial success and heightened visibility as a result of the pandemic, questions linger regarding its long-term prospects. While occam data shows that Roblox maintains a strong presence in American households, exhibits cross-gender appeal, and boasts healthy monthly purchases among its paying users, it is also evident that the Roblox demographic remains decisively young. Occam will continue to monitor the company’s efforts to age up its user base, as it tries to emerge as a Metaverse winner.

Read More »

Occam’s June 2023 CPI Forecast

The closely watched Core CPI (ex food and energy) for June 2023 came in at a 4.8% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 4.9% better than consensus of 5.0%. Overall CPI came in at a 3.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 3.1%, which was inline with the consensus estimate of 3.1%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

Read More »

Out-Predicting the Consensus (Part 2): Occam’s CPI Forecast

May 2023 CPI came in at a 4.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 4.1%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%. May 2023 Core CPI came in at 5.3%. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 5.3% better than consensus of 5.2%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform consensus on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

Read More »

Debt, Deferral, Delinquency: Occam’s Real-Time Insights Into Consumer Credit

Consumer debt has continued on a steep ascent, breaching $17 trillion for the first time in Q1. We also note a concerning but thus far modest upturn in delinquencies in certain credit categories. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York documents these trends but only issues updates on a quarterly basis, which is arguably too slow to be very useful; occam in contrast monitors various aspects of consumer credit on a daily basis, which allows portfolio managers an ability to track the financial health of the consumer in real time. Below, we examine trends in delinquency rates, explore the impact of the rising cost of living on consumer spending habits, and identify the demographic groups most impacted by the increasingly challenging economic conditions

Read More »

Out-Predicting the Consensus: Occam’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Forecast

Leveraging daily survey data from a large pool of respondents and a range of macroeconomic variables, then applying a mix of machine learning methods, occam has shown promise in forecasting macroeconomic releases (10 are being forecasted today, with more on the way). Occam has produced notably accurate estimates for the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan (UMCSENT). Below, we analyze occam’s performance in predicting UMCSENT and briefly describe occam’s data collection as well as its forecasting approach.

Read More »

How Lulu Makes Lemonade: Inside Lululemon’s Success and Potential

Lululemon has maintained a dominant presence in the athleisure clothing sector, despite a steady influx of new competitors eager to capitalize on the industry’s momentum. Consumers have been drawn to athleisure apparel because of its ability to transition easily between workout and casual environments while maintaining a sense of style. Lululemon has carved a niche for itself by infusing its brand with an aspirational allure that suggests its wearers lead a lifestyle that is not only health-conscious but also affluent. Below, occam explores the demographics of lululemon customers and its competitors, illuminating the brand’s significant role in shaping the athleisure landscape.

Read More »

Rockstars, Red Bulls, and Monsters: Who’s Consuming Energy Drinks in an Expanding Market

The history of energy drinks in the United States can be traced back to the introduction of Jolt Cola in 1985, which was cheekily advertised as having “all the sugar and twice the caffeine,” but the grandfather of modern energy drinks was Lipovitan, which was introduced in Japan in 1962, featuring taurine, an ingredient still found in many energy drinks. Red Bull, however, made its US debut in 1997, establishing the archetype for the energy drink as we know it today. Whether used as a study aid, productivity-enhancer, or simply as an invigorating mixer, energy drinks have become emblematic of a fast-paced American lifestyle. Below, occam analyzes the unique demographics of the consumers behind this $63 billion market and attempts to predict consumption trends.

Read More »

When Banks Go Bust: Exploring the Effects of Recent Bank Collapses

The back-to-back failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, as well as lingering uncertainties about the viability of First Republic Bank, have subjected regional lenders to heightened scrutiny. As others have chronicled, the confluence of three elements made for the perfect run-on-the-bank storm: 1) a backdrop of banks with significant asset-liability duration and liquidity mismatches (bond-heavy portfolios held against demand deposits); 2) a backdrop of multiple banks where a large fraction of deposit balances were in excess of FDIC coverage limits; and finally, 3) the Fed’s tardy and therefore unusually aggressive attempts to control inflation with rate hikes. Below, we query occam to evaluate how the resulting bank runs have affected consumer sentiment towards banks and preview what might lie ahead for the industry.

Read More »

Information turned to Insights!

Latest Insights

Netflix Strikes Back: A Deeper Look at Password Crackdowns and Advertising

After a challenging post-covid phase marked by subscription losses that impacted revenues and its reputation as a consistent generator of growth, Netflix has daringly implemented two significant (if controversial) strategic maneuvers to considerable success, emerging as one of the stand-out performers of 2023. The first initiative put an end to account sharing. Though some observers initially dismissed the announcement as an empty threat or even a misstep, data from occam suggests the initiative is likely accretive to BOTH subscriptions and Average Revenue per Membership (ARM). The second initiative introduced an ad-supported subscription tier. Thus far, the plan has shown to be an effective churn reducer and incremental on-ramp to price sensitive consumers. Below, we reveal how both maneuvers are growing Netflix revenues and expanding its prized subscriber base.

Reality Check: Exploring Demand for Apple’s Vision Pro

As the dust settles from the unveiling of Apple’s state-of-the-art Vision Pro AR/VR headset, there’s not only excitement, but also a palpable air of reservation among consumers. Its hefty price tag of $3500 is raising eyebrows, with many wondering if the headset will primarily be a toy for high-income early-adopters. Data from occam supports this notion: a substantial fraction of potential buyers are balking at the cost. Below, with the help of occam data, we explore consumer interest level in the headset, the implications of the high pricing, and how the headset might still provide a quiet win for Apple and its sticky ecosystem.

Roblox: A Metaverse Winner or Child’s Play?

Originally a relatively obscure minigame website that drew in the more adventurous members of the online gaming community, Roblox has undergone a remarkable transformation, positioning itself as one of the most distinctive video game platforms in recent memory. With its foundation rooted in user-generated gaming content, customizable digital assets, and an inclusive digital atmosphere, Roblox holds the potential to become a formidable player in the Metaverse. However, despite the platform’s substantial success and heightened visibility as a result of the pandemic, questions linger regarding its long-term prospects. While occam data shows that Roblox maintains a strong presence in American households, exhibits cross-gender appeal, and boasts healthy monthly purchases among its paying users, it is also evident that the Roblox demographic remains decisively young. Occam will continue to monitor the company’s efforts to age up its user base, as it tries to emerge as a Metaverse winner.

Occam’s June 2023 CPI Forecast

The closely watched Core CPI (ex food and energy) for June 2023 came in at a 4.8% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 4.9% better than consensus of 5.0%. Overall CPI came in at a 3.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 3.1%, which was inline with the consensus estimate of 3.1%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

Out-Predicting the Consensus (Part 2): Occam’s CPI Forecast

May 2023 CPI came in at a 4.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 4.1%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%. May 2023 Core CPI came in at 5.3%. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 5.3% better than consensus of 5.2%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform consensus on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

Debt, Deferral, Delinquency: Occam’s Real-Time Insights Into Consumer Credit

Consumer debt has continued on a steep ascent, breaching $17 trillion for the first time in Q1. We also note a concerning but thus far modest upturn in delinquencies in certain credit categories. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York documents these trends but only issues updates on a quarterly basis, which is arguably too slow to be very useful; occam in contrast monitors various aspects of consumer credit on a daily basis, which allows portfolio managers an ability to track the financial health of the consumer in real time. Below, we examine trends in delinquency rates, explore the impact of the rising cost of living on consumer spending habits, and identify the demographic groups most impacted by the increasingly challenging economic conditions

Out-Predicting the Consensus: Occam’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Forecast

Leveraging daily survey data from a large pool of respondents and a range of macroeconomic variables, then applying a mix of machine learning methods, occam has shown promise in forecasting macroeconomic releases (10 are being forecasted today, with more on the way). Occam has produced notably accurate estimates for the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan (UMCSENT). Below, we analyze occam’s performance in predicting UMCSENT and briefly describe occam’s data collection as well as its forecasting approach.

How Lulu Makes Lemonade: Inside Lululemon’s Success and Potential

Lululemon has maintained a dominant presence in the athleisure clothing sector, despite a steady influx of new competitors eager to capitalize on the industry’s momentum. Consumers have been drawn to athleisure apparel because of its ability to transition easily between workout and casual environments while maintaining a sense of style. Lululemon has carved a niche for itself by infusing its brand with an aspirational allure that suggests its wearers lead a lifestyle that is not only health-conscious but also affluent. Below, occam explores the demographics of lululemon customers and its competitors, illuminating the brand’s significant role in shaping the athleisure landscape.

Rockstars, Red Bulls, and Monsters: Who’s Consuming Energy Drinks in an Expanding Market

The history of energy drinks in the United States can be traced back to the introduction of Jolt Cola in 1985, which was cheekily advertised as having “all the sugar and twice the caffeine,” but the grandfather of modern energy drinks was Lipovitan, which was introduced in Japan in 1962, featuring taurine, an ingredient still found in many energy drinks. Red Bull, however, made its US debut in 1997, establishing the archetype for the energy drink as we know it today. Whether used as a study aid, productivity-enhancer, or simply as an invigorating mixer, energy drinks have become emblematic of a fast-paced American lifestyle. Below, occam analyzes the unique demographics of the consumers behind this $63 billion market and attempts to predict consumption trends.

When Banks Go Bust: Exploring the Effects of Recent Bank Collapses

The back-to-back failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, as well as lingering uncertainties about the viability of First Republic Bank, have subjected regional lenders to heightened scrutiny. As others have chronicled, the confluence of three elements made for the perfect run-on-the-bank storm: 1) a backdrop of banks with significant asset-liability duration and liquidity mismatches (bond-heavy portfolios held against demand deposits); 2) a backdrop of multiple banks where a large fraction of deposit balances were in excess of FDIC coverage limits; and finally, 3) the Fed’s tardy and therefore unusually aggressive attempts to control inflation with rate hikes. Below, we query occam to evaluate how the resulting bank runs have affected consumer sentiment towards banks and preview what might lie ahead for the industry.